Line Numbers – Low Dimension http://www.lowdimension.net/ Tue, 06 Jul 2021 13:52:44 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8 https://www.lowdimension.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/icon-4-150x150.png Line Numbers – Low Dimension http://www.lowdimension.net/ 32 32 NFL Under-25 offensive team: Titans have most of the early team-mates behind AJ Brown, QB winks at Lamar Jackson https://www.lowdimension.net/nfl-under-25-offensive-team-titans-have-most-of-the-early-team-mates-behind-aj-brown-qb-winks-at-lamar-jackson/ Tue, 06 Jul 2021 13:35:33 +0000 https://www.lowdimension.net/nfl-under-25-offensive-team-titans-have-most-of-the-early-team-mates-behind-aj-brown-qb-winks-at-lamar-jackson/ Young talent is extremely important when it comes to being successful in the NFL. Some argue that the salary cap is a myth, but it still exists, even though teams have been creative when it comes to signing free agents and restructuring current contracts. Having a star quarterback or extended wide receiver on a rookie […]]]>

Young talent is extremely important when it comes to being successful in the NFL. Some argue that the salary cap is a myth, but it still exists, even though teams have been creative when it comes to signing free agents and restructuring current contracts. Having a star quarterback or extended wide receiver on a rookie deal expands your Super Bowl window even further, because someday you’ll have to break the bank to keep them.

This week on CBSSports.com, we’ll take a look at some of the best young players in the NFL as we build our Under-25 Offensive and Defensive teams. We’ve already discussed the top 25 NFL players under 25, but here we’re going to dive a little deeper into the individual players. For the first and second attacking teams under 25, we will take into consideration the performance of these players during their first seasons in the league, Sports Reference Approximate Value (AV) Tool then their future prospects. There are some really big names on this list, so let’s go and jump in there.

First team

QB: Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

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In his first full season as a Ravens starter in 2019, Jackson was named First Team All-Pro, made the Pro Bowl, led the NFL in touchdown passes and of course won the MVP. He was an unstoppable double-threat weapon who ran for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns to go along with his 3,127 passing yards and 36 scores in the air. Jackson didn’t “regress” much in 2020, as the Ravens still finished 11-5, made the playoffs and got their playoff revenge against the Titans by beating them at Super Wild-Card Weekend. Although Jackson is an incredible athlete, some may still question his ability to consistently perform well on the pitch. According to ESPN, Jackson ranked 19th for throwing attempts from 20 or more yards down (45) and 24th for success rate on those passes (37.8%) last season. That could change in 2021, however, as the Ravens came out and signed Sammy Watkins in free agency and drafted Rashod Bateman. Jackson is a quarterback any NFL team would be happy to have, and his best football could be ahead of him. He is due to take an extension in the near future.

Fancy even more NFL coverage with a focus on previews, recaps, news and analysis? Listen below and to pursue the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of NFL goodness.

RB Saquon Barkley (Giants)

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Barkley sadly tore his ACL in Game 2 of the season last year, but we have reason to expect him to bounce back. When the Giants drafted him with the No.2 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, he quickly proved he was indeed the dynamic double-threat weapon we all love to watch on Saturdays at Penn State. He recorded 2,028 scrum yards, 15 touchdowns and won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. An ankle injury forced him to miss three games in 2019, so the questions about his health are fair. But at the same time, “Saquads” is a physical specimen and is one of the best running backs in the league when in good health.

WR Justin Jefferson (Vikings)

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As a rookie, Jefferson was fourth among all players with 1,400 receiving yards (which was an all-time record for a rookie) and ninth in receiving yards at 15.9. He didn’t even start the first two games of the season, but exploded to a career-high 175 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Titans in his first start in Week 3. Towards the end of the season, Jefferson said he started to see the defenses “disguise” their game plans around him, but that didn’t stop him. In fact, it only gave him confidence. Jefferson has recorded over 100 receiving yards in two of the last three games of the season. A star in the making.

WR DK Metcalf (Seahawks)

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I was quite shocked to see Metcalf drop to 64th in the 2019 NFL Draft. Sure, he had some injury concerns from Ole Miss, but he was dominant every time he was on the field and also tore the combine. Metcalf caught 58 passes for 900 yards and seven touchdowns during his rookie season, and seven passes for 160 yards and one touchdown in Seattle’s 17-9 win over the Eagles – which was the Seahawks’ franchise record for receiving yards in a playoff game, as well as the NFL playoff record for any rookie. Metcalf capitalized on his rookie season capturing 83 passes for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020. His 81.4 yards per game ranked seventh among all receivers and tight ends, and he won his first offer. Pro Bowl and his second All-Pro team as well. He’s a big target who’s fast and can beat you down the line, and he’s only 23.

WR AJ Brown (Titans)

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It’s pretty amazing that Metcalf and Brown shared the same land at Ole Miss. In his rookie season, Brown became the only player from the Super Bowl era to record over 1,000 receiving yards averaging over 20 receiving yards, according to NFL Research. Even after missing two of the first three games this season, Brown still rebounded to a career high in all areas and placed fifth among all receivers with 11 touchdowns. He’s dynamic on the pitch and defining a home hitter.

With the addition of Julio Jones, Brown could be even better in 2021.

TE TJ Hockenson (Lions)

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I ranked Hockenson as the No. 5 tight end in the league heading into 2021. In his first full season, the former Iowa Hawkeye caught 67 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns. He was fourth among all tight ends for receptions, third for yards and tied for ninth for touchdowns. Hockenson was dangerous working in midfield and efficient in the red zone. Plus, he’s proven to be a solid run blocker. The Lions aren’t an incredibly fun team to watch, but Hockenson should become a household name soon.

LT Jedrick Wills Jr. (Browns)

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We had a few options for our first team left tackle, but Wills’ 8 on the Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) scale justified his selection. He missed just one game in his rookie season and served as a blind blocker for Baker Mayfield, the former No. 1 overall pick having enjoyed his best NFL season yet. . Wills also helped pave the way for the talented duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and looks to be the left tackle of the Cleveland franchise for years to come.

LG Connor Williams (Cowboys)

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Williams was certainly not considered one of the best linemen in the Cowboys’ charged unit, but he stood up when the rest of the attacking front collapsed in 2020. He started in the 16 games for the first time in his career and recorded an AV, a career-high 8. With the rest of the return line in good health and Williams entering a year on contract, we expect him to. shows he is one of the best offensive linemen under 25 in 2021.

C Erik McCoy (Saints)

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McCoy was drafted by the Saints in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft outside of Texas A&M, and started every game at center in his first two seasons. He posted an AV of 8 in 2019 and a AV of 9 last season – which was tied for sixth among all crosses. The Saints have a great offensive line, and McCoy is certainly a big part of it. They will help whoever replaces Drew Brees this season.

RG Nate Davis (Titans)

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Davis was immediately pushed into the starting lineup as Charlotte’s 2019 third-round pick, and he was clearly a weak spot along the offensive line with a 30.1 grade PFF in weeks 1-14. However, he really improved it at the end of the year and posted a 71.5 rating in Week 15 in the Titans’ magical playoff run until the AFC Championship game. . Davis maintained that kind of consistency and posted an impressive AV of 10 in 2020, which was tied for fourth among all offensive guards. Davis has helped running back Derrick Henry lead the league by rushing for two straight years now, and has also helped him become the eighth player in NFL history to run over 2,000 yards in a single season.

RT Tristan Wirfs (buccaneers)

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The Buccaneers made several big additions that helped them win Super Bowl LV, and Wirfs was one of them. The No.13 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has played and started in all 16 games and allowed just one sack in 799 pass blocking snaps, according to PFF. Sure, Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback ever, but he’s not the most agile signalman in the NFL. He usually fell fair if a defender crossed the line last year, but Wirfs and that attacking front as a whole did a great job of keeping him on his feet.

Second team

QB: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
RB: Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
WR: DJ Moore (Panthers), CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys), Chase Claypool (Steelers)
TE: Noah Fant (Broncos)
LT: Mekhi Becton (Jets)
LG: Michael Onwenu (patriots)
C: Lloyd Cushenberry III (Broncos)
RG: Damien Lewis (Seahawks)
RT: Chukwuma Okorafor (Steels)

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Odds, picks, top MLB 2021 bets for July 6 from proven model: this four-way parlay pays 14-1 https://www.lowdimension.net/odds-picks-top-mlb-2021-bets-for-july-6-from-proven-model-this-four-way-parlay-pays-14-1/ Tue, 06 Jul 2021 13:14:50 +0000 https://www.lowdimension.net/odds-picks-top-mlb-2021-bets-for-july-6-from-proven-model-this-four-way-parlay-pays-14-1/ There has been no greater individual story this Major League Baseball season than Los Angeles Angels double-threat star Shohei Ohtani, William Hill Sportsbook’s -180 favorite to win the American League MVP. Ohtani became the first player in history to be selected as an All-Star as a pitcher and positional player. The Japanese sensation will take […]]]>

There has been no greater individual story this Major League Baseball season than Los Angeles Angels double-threat star Shohei Ohtani, William Hill Sportsbook’s -180 favorite to win the American League MVP. Ohtani became the first player in history to be selected as an All-Star as a pitcher and positional player. The Japanese sensation will take the mound Tuesday night against the visiting Boston Red Sox and is also expected to strike for himself as manager Joe Maddon usually allows. This is a debut pitch at 9:38 p.m. ET from Anaheim.

Ohtani could have his hands full against a loaded Boston lineup with the Sox retiring to the AL East Division. Three Red Sox positional players have been named to the AL All-Star team: designated hitter JD Martinez, shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers. The latest MLB odds for Monday from William Hill Sportsbook list Boston and Los Angeles at -105 (risk $ 105 to win $ 100) on the money line in the latest Red Sox vs Angels odds.

Other MLB lines of note include a low 6.5 runs when the Milwaukee Brewers visit Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets; the Los Angeles Dodgers at -130 to the Miami Marlins; and the Seattle Mariners with +135 home underdogs against the New York Yankees. Before making MLB picks for Tuesday night, you must see the latest SportsLine projection model forecast.

This model, which simulates every throw of every game 10,000 times, had an outstanding 2019 season, the last full league schedule, grossing over $ 1,400 on its top-rated silver line and race line. MLB pick. It’s off to a flying start in 2021, dropping from 113 to 87 on MLB’s top money line picks for 14 weeks, bringing in nearly $ 900. Anyone who follows him has seen huge rewards.

Now the model has calculated the numbers for Tuesday’s MLB schedule and released her best bets. Successfully talking about those four MLB picks today will pay around 14-1. Head over to SportsLine now to see the choices.

Top MLB Picks for Tuesday, July 6

One of the model’s top MLB picks for Tuesday: The Red Sox (-105) beat the Angels. Despite Ohtani’s mind-blowing numbers on the plate, he has yet to resolve Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi. He’s career 0-for-6 against him. Eovaldi, 31, became the Red Sox ace with a 9-4 record, 3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 97.2 innings.

The fat right-hander leads the AL by allowing just 0.37 home runs per nine innings and has a 2.28 ERA in his last eight starts. He was first named to the All-Star team. No Angels member has scored in a career against Eovaldi, who allowed four runs in five innings in a non-decision game against the Angels on May 16.

Boston has been one of the top cash-making teams all season, taking home over $ 1,800 for $ 100 bettors. The Angels, meanwhile, have – $ 359 for online bettors this season.

Featured Game | Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

How to make MLB predictions, parlays for Tuesday, July 6

The model locked in three more top MLB bets on Tuesday, including a play on a surprising underdog. You can see his best bets only on SportsLine.

So what MLB picks should you make on Tuesday to try for a 14-1 comeback? And which outsider do you need to be everywhere? Visit SportsLine now to see Tuesday’s MLB picks, all from the projection model that kicks off quickly in 2021, and find out.

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Two main reasons the Cowboys should be a healthier team in 2021 https://www.lowdimension.net/two-main-reasons-the-cowboys-should-be-a-healthier-team-in-2021/ Tue, 06 Jul 2021 13:00:00 +0000 https://www.lowdimension.net/two-main-reasons-the-cowboys-should-be-a-healthier-team-in-2021/ Football is a game of attrition, and every team has to deal with injuries over the course of a season. But you need a little extra mojo to get hit like the Cowboys were injured last year. Every year, Football Outsiders publishes its statistical study of the team’s health from the previous NFL season. For […]]]>

Football is a game of attrition, and every team has to deal with injuries over the course of a season. But you need a little extra mojo to get hit like the Cowboys were injured last year.

Every year, Football Outsiders publishes its statistical study of the team’s health from the previous NFL season. For 2020, FO has determined that the Cowboys are one of the teams hardest hit by the injury virus, at least according to their metric called Adjusted games lost (AGL). In their own words:

… adjusted for lost matches aims to measure the impact of injuries on teams. As you can probably guess, a starting offensive tackle means more to his team than a special teams player. Adjusted lost matches capture this distinction with separate weights of starters, replacement starters, situational players, and bench players. Additionally, the metric adjusts the weighting of active players who were on their teams’ injury reports prior to playing to account for an anticipated decrease in effectiveness when playing injured.

By FO’s definition, the Cowboys finished the 2020 season with 118.5 adjusted games lost. Ranking the teams from the healthiest (# 1 Tampa Bay with 30.6 AGL) to the most injured (# 32 San Francisco, 166.6 AGL), the Cowboys ranked 28th last year. A year earlier, the Cowboys had been a health role model, placing fourth overall in AGL terms. The following table shows where the Cowboys have ranked over the years in terms of AGL.

Dallas Cowboys Adjusted Game Ranking Lost To Injury, 2008-2020
Year ’08 ’09 ‘ten ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20
Rank 18 3 7 18 28 18 19 5 16 5 17 4 28

Overall, the Cowboys have enjoyed positive injury luck over the past 12 years: in five of the past 12 seasons (marked in green) they were among the least injured teams in the league, five years (colorless) saw them with an average league AGL, and two seasons (red) saw them bottom of the league in terms of AGL.

But 2020 turned out to be a double whammy for the Cowboys. Not only did they have a high GLA level, but these GLA were found to be very concentrated.

Their [bottom-five] the overall adjusted lost game tally was focused on offense, and more specifically on the quarterback and line which represented their team’s anticipated strength.

Dak Prescott finished sixth passing DVOA in 2019 and eighth in 2020 before his ankle injury. Meanwhile, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La’el Collins, Cameron Erving, and Joe Looney all missed out on the offensive line. Smith and Martin have 12 Pro Bowl bunks and six first-team All-Pro accolades between them, so it wasn’t surprising to see the Cowboys drop from second place in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. in 2019 at 12th and 14th in these bars last year.

The image below highlights the very skewed distribution of attacking injuries in 2020:

The 2020 Cowboys offense was ranked 29th in the league with 75.6 adjusted games lost. The defense on the other hand, despite injuries to linebacker (Leighton Vander Esch, Sean Lee) and cornerback (Chidobe Awuzie, Anthony Brown, Trevon Diggs) placed in the middle of 18th place in the league with 42 , 8 adjusted matches lost.

Statistically speaking, there are two main reasons for optimism in the numbers presented above, the “regression to the mean” and the “normal distribution”.

Regression to the mean

This statistical phenomenon describes the fact that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to approach the average on a second measurement. In our case today, this means that teams with a very high injury rate one year tend to have a better injury situation the following year, while teams with an extremely low injury rate tend to have more injuries the following year.

Specifically, it’s very likely that the Cowboys offense will see far fewer injuries in 2021. That’s a good thing, and even Football Outsiders have understood this fact.

Overall, the playoffs were filled with healthy teams. Seven of the top 10 teams in lost adjusted matches made it to the playoffs, and only Washington won their division while finishing in the final third.

This trend should likely inform the Falcons (48.0 adjusted games lost, third) and Texans‘(58.2, seventh) decisions to try to compete immediately or to rebuild. They have little room to improve when it comes to injury, which means all of their winnings have to come from improved play.

On the other hand, teams such as the Chargers (109.1, 27th) and Cowboys (118.5, 28th) may already have suitors and just need a little more luck to realize that potential.

We know injuries are a reality in the NFL. We also know that a good portion of the injuries sustained are random: the healthiest team in 2019 (MIN: 25.6 AGL) came back to the middle of the standings and placed 16th last year (83, 5 AGL); the Cowboys placed 4th in 2019 and fell to 28th in 2020. These types of swings happen every year, but these are the outliers. Most teams will hover to varying degrees around the league average, and that’s a reasonable expectation for the Cowboys in 2021. And that little extra health may be all the team needs to take on the NFC. East.

Normal distribution

Without getting into the discussions of bell curves and standard deviations, a normal distribution in statistics considers that the most common values ​​are close to the mean and the less common values ​​gradually move away from it.

In the simplest possible terms for the Cowboys: The Cowboys should expect a better distribution of injuries across the roster, which in turn should make the impact of those injuries less crippling.

You saw in the starting offensive lineup image above that the O-line starters missed 39 games combined. Add injuries to some of the saves and you have an AGL total of 46.4, which ranks the Cowboys 31st in the league. Expect this value to decrease as injuries are distributed more evenly across the entire roster.

Unfortunately, while this normal distribution should be good news for positions like QB, TE and OL who were particularly hard hit by injury last year, it’s bad news for Hall WR and RB: the Cowboys had the league’s lowest AGL offshore. receiver and the third lowest AGL at RB. Don’t expect a repeat of this this year.

Overall, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect the Cowboys to have a higher chance of getting injured this year. Will it be enough to make the playoffs?

I don’t know, but I think it will.

And our old friend Rabblerousr agrees:

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